What do campaigns use polls to accomplish

For example, suppose those being polled are required to respond to a question Finally, polls conducted by telephone or through the mails generally do not tend to be as reliable as personal interviews. This is largely due to the fact that the former measures are not as likely to be able to control for who really participates in the poll, the number who respond, and possible misinterpretation of the questions. When Was the Poll Conducted? It should also be noted that the results of a poll are representative As a general rule, the more current the poll, the more likely it is to produce meaningful and useful results.

A summer poll regarding who should be elected president in , for example, is not likely to be as accurate as a poll taken during election week of the actual election. Who Conducted the Poll? Past reputation and performance can also help an individual determine the validity of the results of a poll. Generally speaking, "novice" pollsters are not likely to be able to compete with professional polling organizations with their large staff's, seemingly unlimited resources, and sophisticated computer equipment.

In addition, polls conducted by groups with an obvious interest in the results should be held suspect until proven otherwise. Finally, past performance records of a polling group might be useful in determining the organization's credibility and reliability. What was the Percentage of Error Polling organizations should also indicate what the potential for error of their poll is.

Based on the size of their sample it is statistically possible to do sod indicates reliability to the reader. Although you probably don't have the means to conduct a scientific opinion poll, you can take an informal poll. It can help you learn what people in your school or community think about the election and other issues.

There are three steps to conducting a public opinion poll:. Alumni Volunteers The Boardroom Alumni. Curriculum Materials. Add Event. Main Menu Home. What people believe; How they feel about something; or In what way they will act.

Nevertheless, in viewing the results of any public opinion poll, it might be useful to ask the following questions: 1. Based on this analysis, consider the following questions: Which of the factors described above in assessing the validity of a poll do you think is most important? Least important? Do you think polls are valuable? Why or why not? Would you place any restriction on them in reporting an election? If so, explain. Louis Harris and George Gallup, names familiar to many Americans, head independent survey organizations that compile data mainly for business and media clients.

These organizations gather data for policymakers and maintain high standards for scientific research on public opinion. But political candidates tend not to rely on the publicly-reported poll results we read in our daily papers.

Rather, the pollsters with the most impact on American politics are the myriad for-hire consultants and firms who sell their services to individual candidates. Many of these firms are partisan. In order to build trust and credibility, they poll only for candidates from one party. Polls vary a great deal in cost.

Some candidates will try to save money by conducting their own polls, but these in-house polls lack the credibility and dependability of professional surveying. However, media and direct mail spending are made much more efficient by the use of poll data. Polling is part of the research of any effective campaign. Research starts with knowing who the voters are and what they care about. A campaign can identify the voters who went to the polls in all, some, or none of the recent primaries.

From this data, it can compile lists of likely, probable, and less likely but possible voters. Once a list of likely voters is in hand, the campaign uses it to conduct detailed benchmark polls and other surveys.

Moreover, by cross-referencing the voter lists with membership lists of different national and local organizations, a campaign can also identify issue inclinations on the part of voters.

Political pollsters rely completely on the telephone. Telephone contacts can be made quickly and with fewer biasing factors than is the case with face-to-face interviewing. Some surveyors have their telephone banks dial the numbers created through random selection without excluding such inappropriate numbers as car dealerships, laundromats, or phone booths. For political polling, a higher quality sample excludes numbers known to be businesses or offices.

For many years, random digit dialing was viewed as superior to using published phone numbers since, in many parts of America, from one fifth to one half of the telephones are unlisted.

And some income and ethnic groups are under- or over-represented when random digit dialing is used. Most polling is done in the evening, since calls made during the day may be skewed toward women and the elderly. There are also patterns to who answers the phone.

For example, young single adults and women in a household answer the phone more often than do men or elderly residents. Pollsters call back repeatedly, because tossing out immediately non-responsive numbers would bias the survey. There is no reason to suppose that ownership of answering machines or absence from home in the evening is random. They want to know what likely voters think. Therefore, political pollsters prefer a sample limited to likely voters.

The opinions of a group of non-voters may be very different from the opinions of a group of voters. This is expecially true in primary elections, where a very small percentage of the electorate participates, and those who do often have intense opinions on controversial issues or strong party loyalty. Screening questions that ask respondents to say whether they intend to vote, are registered to vote, or voted in the last election, are commonly used.

They suspect that many people do not want to admit they are not registered or are indifferent to the election. Even though the calls are anonymous, people may want to create a good image for themselves in the mind of the stranger on the other end of the line.

Many political pollsters therefore reject random digit dialing. Rather, as indicated above , they purchase lists of registered voters that indicate in which recent elections a person voted. In national polls, a sample should include 1, to 3, successful responses. In statewide polls, a good sample should contain to 1, responses.

In a sophisticated social science survey, and in some benchmark polling, adjustments are made in the sample to enable it to accurately reflect known patterns in the demographics of the electorate.

Age, gender, race, and area of residence adjustments can me made to reflect overall census or likely voter patterns. When professional surveyors ask questions and offer multiple choices for responses, they present the order of the choices randomly, with a different order from call to call, so that no pattern of preference develops for the first or last option.

This is because the first choice available is somewhat favored by respondents and because people may remember most clearly the last option they hear. Question design and sequence are also crucial. Sequences can create expectations and predispositions to answer in a particular manner.

The information in this survey will help the campaign managers design the themes, messages, and media and mail solicitations of the campaign. Samples used in subsequent polls will be based on the information about the likely electorate unearthed in this first comprehensive survey.

A benchmark survey takes anywhere from fifteen minutes to half an hour to conduct by phone. Many interviews are conducted in order to increase the reliability of the data. The sample needs to include enough respondents in each demographic category to validate the predictive value of the data for each subgroup.

In a congressional or senate campaign, benchmark surveys are usually conducted about six months ahead of the primary. Voter familiarity with the candidate is one of the most important measurements taken in a benchmark poll. Do voters know who the candidate is? Do they view the candidate, and his or her opponent, favorably or not? What characteristics of the candidate resonate with likely voters? What other elected officials in the area or nation do voters view favorably?

By knowing which politicians voters like, campaign managers can seek helpful endorsements for their candidate. On the negative side, they may try to associate the opponent with the least popular members of the other party. Positive name recognition is one of the most crucial factors in campaign fundraising.

Benchmark polls are used by candidates hoping to challenge an incumbent or a front-runner to increase campaign contributions. In a benchmark poll, the likely voters will also be asked detailed questions about the range of possible issues that the campaign might raise.

As Dick Morris observed, the goal is not for a candidate to choose what to stand for, but for the campaign to find out which issues strike a strong chord with voters. Within two months of a primary, some campaigns will do quick surveys to test themes and messages they anticipate their opponents will use.

Tracking and brushfire polls are quick surveys done in the last few weeks of a campaign. The message of the campaign has been framed and the advertising is on TV or radio or in mailboxes. Campaigns need to know how likely voters are reacting to their messages. If a hemorrhage of support is occurring, the campaign can scramble to deliver a targeted message to staunch the bleeding.

In Illinois in , a Republican candidate for secretary of state ran a series of television spots showing the candidate with the popular incumbent governor. The campaign ran the spots again, but this time with a banner that identified both men.

In a close race in the last week before the election, polling will be conducted nightly to determine where the message of the campaign needs the most support. Plus, close poll results that fall within the margin of error make positions on policy appear certain when they are actually uncertain. Citizens want their views represented while decisions are being made. Polls provide that opportunity in a way that elections do not. Join Opinion on Facebook and follow updates on twitter.

Topics: Politics , democracy , polls. Have public opinion surveys been given too great a role in American politics? Are they measuring public opinion, or creating it? Arthur Lupia, author, "Uninformed". Heith, author, "Polling to Govern". Sarah Igo, author, "The Averaged American''.

Lanae Erickson Hatalsky, Third Way. Taeku Lee, University of California, Berkeley.